Special Issue Journal of Human Geography and Environmental Studies

Special Issue 1, December 2009

Article Number: 03 

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Application of advanced quantitative analysis methods to forecast rainfall and water demand

A. Derakhshani, I. JahanAndish, and A. Keramati

Pages 12-19

Abstract—In this paper advanced quantitative methods, including Artificial Neural Network, Time Series and Regression Analysis are applied to forecast rainfall and water demand. Accumulated data due to the rainfall in the last 50 years and the water consumption of Tehran in the last 17 years are used. The final model is achieved using and running different models that help to predict the rainfall and consumption amount for the coming 24 months. Results are showing the decrease in rainfall which in turn results in a reduction in urban water reserve, meanwhile the consumption rate will be increased. So attending the reserve and water consumption management in the coming years seems to be inevitable.

Keywords—artificial neural network, rain amount prediction, regression analysis, time series, water consumption prediction.