Special Issue Journal of Sustainability Science and Studies

Special Issue 2, December 2018

Article Number: 06

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Time series dynamics of precipitation patterns in four major urban cities in sub-Saharan Africa: Persistence, seasonality and long memory

Awe, O.O., and Gil-Alana, L.A.

Pages 504-508

Abstract—In recent times, the study of rainfall patterns have become highly pre-eminent for various reasons. This paper deals with the modelling of precipitation patterns in Africa’s largest country using recently developed flexible I(d) techniques for time series data. We employ both fractional integration and structural break techniques in studying the daily precipitation data (spanning between 1992 and 2014) of four major cities in Nigeria (Lagos, Kano, Ibadan and Kaduna). The results indicate that there is a significant trend for Lagos rainfall data, implying that temperatures have systematically increased across the years in this city. Additionally, the seasonal component is more prominent in the cases of Kano and Kaduna than for Ibadan and Lagos where the values are slightly smaller. The findings of this study have germane implications for adaptation, forecasting, and agricultural planning, as well as disaster or risk reduction in Africa’s largest country, in the context of global warming. 

Keywords—precipitation dynamics, nonlinearities, fractional integration, climate change